Google has caught Moonpull by surprise, by announcing it is not deprecating third party cookies.
At first glance this might sound like good news for the affiliate industry.
However, as Eric Seufert in Mobile Dev Memo says: "Google can sidestep the regulatory scrutiny of deprecating cookies in Chrome by simply passing the burden of accepting cookies to individual consumers. If [Apple's 2021] ATT serves as a clarifying precedent, the overwhelming majority (~85%) of users will not consent to being tracked by cookies."
Additionally, Richard Lawler in the Verge adds: "Putting a prompt in front of Chrome's billions of users wouldn't be as drastic as changing the default entirely, but it still might cut the number of users allowing third-party tracking significantly."
This strikes us as a case of "The King is dead, long live the King", so out with the old, in with the new — materially the same, but with differences. And only time will tell what these differences will be.
What Does This Mean for Affiliate Marketing?
Affiliate marketing is facing two specific headwinds at this moment — deprecation and user consent for first party tracking. Safari and Firefox, that have deprecated cookies, make up more than 30% of browser market share, so deprecation has already happened for many users.
The Impact of Safari Deprecation — the ITP Rules
Currently the shortfall due to deprecation on Safari breaking affiliate tracking — or more accurately, there not being a first party method present — leads to a potential uplift available for publishers on resolving the situation by 43% (so 3/7ths).
User Consent
User consent bites into the success of first party tracking. Notably, in Europe this might be leading to 50% or more of first party tracking not being initiated for many users across many advertisers on Safari and Firefox.
The Big Picture
Google is replacing an uncertain timeline associated with a certain event with an uncertain timeline with an uncertain event. At this moment, it's a case of "unknown unknowns". The response from the UK ICO in July was "We are disappointed that Google has changed its plans and no longer intends to deprecate third party cookies from the Chrome Browser...".
Advertisers and publishers should adapt and be ready for a largely third-party free world.
Publishers are increasingly adopting a "Flight to Quality" approach when it comes to advertiser selection and our recommendation to advertisers is to continue to aim for the best possible tracking implementation in order to have the best long-term publisher relationships.
If you would like to see more of how Moonpull can benefit your business, we'd love to hear from you. Please get in touch via our [contact page](/contact).